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Rivers of inaccuracy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nInitial findings based on an audit being carried out on a website created by tech entrepreneur, Mark Essien, and other tech professionals cast doubt on the Rivers state results announced by INEC, which had declared Bola Tinubu\u2019s APC as the winner of the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The audit suggests Peter Obi\u2019s Labour party won the state. With more than 80% of the votes for Rivers tallied so far, it would appear INEC greatly undercounted the votes won by Labour, while more than doubling the votes garnered by the APC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Based on the audit, Labour had 215,560 votes, APC had 115,698 and PDP with 72,419. The results INEC announced were APC: 231,591; LP: 175,071; and PDP: 88,468.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/markessien\/status\/1633052485819531265\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/ml3ecjxvie7p.i.optimole.com\/cb:tH84.1188a\/w:1024\/h:633\/q:mauto\/f:best\/https:\/\/greycontinent.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1-1024x633.png\")
Rivers state results as seen on iRev with 100,000 votes outstanding compared with INEC’s declaration<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nResults sheets which haven\u2019t been uploaded or which have but are illegible are not included in the count. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
With 523,651 votes cast in the state according to INEC, around 100,000 or so votes are yet to be added to the tally. Whether the APC is able to catch up with the Labour Party as those votes are added is up for debate, according to Stanley Ikechukwu, Head of Operations SBM Intelligence, at Lagos based security and research consultancy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt depends on where the remaining polling units left to be uploaded are. Certain LGAs [local government areas] have more population compared with others. The population centres have always been the battleground in any election. The Rivers case will not be any much different.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Suspicions and gut feelings<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nQuestions about the accuracy of INEC\u2019s figures began to emerge shortly after the election, with many people from Rivers state expressing shock that Labour had lost the state, where Peter Obi has long been seen as a popular candidate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Having a feeling <\/em>about the results though, isn\u2019t enough to indicate that INEC was wrong, which is where independent analysis came in.<\/p>\n\n\n\nCivil society organisation, Yiaga Africa, did a random sample of results across the country, and found that their estimates for Rivers and Imo states were at odds with INEC\u2019s official figures. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement on the 1st of March, Yiaga Africa said, \u201cin sharp contrast to the Yiaga Africa WTV [Watching The Vote] estimates for Rivers which are: APC 21.7 percent \u00b15.0 percent; for LP 50.8 percent \u00b110.6 percent; and PDP 22.2 percent \u00b16.5 percent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yiaga Africa further added, \u201cINEC should clarify the inconsistencies in some of the results, especially presidential election results from Rivers and Imo states.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u201cINEC should clarify the inconsistencies in some of the results, especially presidential election results from Rivers and Imo states.\u201d<\/p>Yiaga Africa<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\nWhy audit the results<\/strong>?<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhile different results from Rivers and Imo states may not affect the results materially in that the APC would still have the most votes and the 25% threshold spread, it raises questions about INEC\u2019s overall credibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Electoral Act 2022 allows INEC to investigate concerns before announcing a winner, however, it appeared to only allow recourse (going to court) to aggrieved parties after <\/em>the APC was declared winner. <\/p>\n\n\n\nMark Essien, a self declared Peter Obi supporter, and founder of the hotel booking portal, hotels.ng, felt something was amiss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“It was very clear in places, like in Rivers state, that the numbers were not matching,” said Mark Essien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u201cIt was very clear in places, like in Rivers state, that the numbers were not matching\u201d <\/p>Mark Essien<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u201cBut how do you prove it, who\u2019s going to take out 6,000 sheets from Rivers state and tally it all up together somehow with a pen?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Essien decided to leverage his knowledge of technology to look at the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Working with other developers, the website took them just two days to build.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n Results sheets which haven\u2019t been uploaded or which have but are illegible are not included in the count. <\/p>\n\n\n\n With 523,651 votes cast in the state according to INEC, around 100,000 or so votes are yet to be added to the tally. Whether the APC is able to catch up with the Labour Party as those votes are added is up for debate, according to Stanley Ikechukwu, Head of Operations SBM Intelligence, at Lagos based security and research consultancy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt depends on where the remaining polling units left to be uploaded are. Certain LGAs [local government areas] have more population compared with others. The population centres have always been the battleground in any election. The Rivers case will not be any much different.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Questions about the accuracy of INEC\u2019s figures began to emerge shortly after the election, with many people from Rivers state expressing shock that Labour had lost the state, where Peter Obi has long been seen as a popular candidate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Having a feeling <\/em>about the results though, isn\u2019t enough to indicate that INEC was wrong, which is where independent analysis came in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Civil society organisation, Yiaga Africa, did a random sample of results across the country, and found that their estimates for Rivers and Imo states were at odds with INEC\u2019s official figures. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In a statement on the 1st of March, Yiaga Africa said, \u201cin sharp contrast to the Yiaga Africa WTV [Watching The Vote] estimates for Rivers which are: APC 21.7 percent \u00b15.0 percent; for LP 50.8 percent \u00b110.6 percent; and PDP 22.2 percent \u00b16.5 percent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yiaga Africa further added, \u201cINEC should clarify the inconsistencies in some of the results, especially presidential election results from Rivers and Imo states.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cINEC should clarify the inconsistencies in some of the results, especially presidential election results from Rivers and Imo states.\u201d<\/p>Yiaga Africa<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n While different results from Rivers and Imo states may not affect the results materially in that the APC would still have the most votes and the 25% threshold spread, it raises questions about INEC\u2019s overall credibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Electoral Act 2022 allows INEC to investigate concerns before announcing a winner, however, it appeared to only allow recourse (going to court) to aggrieved parties after <\/em>the APC was declared winner. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Mark Essien, a self declared Peter Obi supporter, and founder of the hotel booking portal, hotels.ng, felt something was amiss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “It was very clear in places, like in Rivers state, that the numbers were not matching,” said Mark Essien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt was very clear in places, like in Rivers state, that the numbers were not matching\u201d <\/p>Mark Essien<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n \u201cBut how do you prove it, who\u2019s going to take out 6,000 sheets from Rivers state and tally it all up together somehow with a pen?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Essien decided to leverage his knowledge of technology to look at the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Working with other developers, the website took them just two days to build.<\/p>\n\n\n\nSuspicions and gut feelings<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Why audit the results<\/strong>?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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